UK general election 2019: A brief guide to the upcoming campaign
Added 11-08-19 12:37:02am EST - “The next UK general election is to be held on December 12. Here's what Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and the Brexit Party will each be hoping to achieve from the campaign.” - Rt.com
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The Conservative Party will begin this election comfortably ahead in the opinion polls, but not quite so far ahead as you might think. Human beings are hard-wired to remember the shocking results and so we’re more likely to notice the large leads. MORI gave the Conservatives a 17% lead over Labour; YouGov 11%, and Survation 8%. Most people will remember the 17, but forget the 8.
But in 2017, the Conservatives had an even bigger lead at the start of the campaign, only to see that lead evaporate and because of a hung parliament which has paralysed decision-making for the last couple of years. I don’t believe that 2019 is comparable to 2017: Theresa May’s weaknesses and frailties as a leader weren’t noticed until the 2017 campaign. Boris Johnson is much more of a known quantity, love him or hate him.
Even so, the Conservatives must not be complacent. They are in the lead, and they will be attacked from both sides. Every other party stands to gain by attacking the party that is in front. The Brexit Party will be a far greater threat in 2019 than a dying UKIP was in 2017. Conservatives stand to lose seats in London, Scotland, and in some strongly Remain-backing areas. To compensate, they’ll need to win seats they’ve rarely or never won before. After 9 years in government, it’s rare for any political party to be making gains, but that’s what the Conservatives need to do to win.
Worse still, they have no potential coalition partner in the event of a hung parliament unless the Brexit Party succeeds. They may start from a good position, but they cannot afford complacency.
Conservative target: To win an overall majority large enough to be able to govern without interference.
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