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The flooding in Yellowstone reveals forecast flaws as climate warms

Added 07-07-22 04:07:02am EST - “Models used to predict flooding are based on long-term, historical records that do not reflect changes to the climate over the past decade, scientists say..” - Npr.org

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Posted By TheNewsCommenter: From Npr.org: “The flooding in Yellowstone reveals forecast flaws as climate warms”. Below is an excerpt from the article.

A house sits in Rock Creek after floodwaters washed away a road and a bridge in Red Lodge, Mont., on June 15, 2022. David Goldman/AP hide caption

A house sits in Rock Creek after floodwaters washed away a road and a bridge in Red Lodge, Mont., on June 15, 2022.

BILLINGS, Mont. — The Yellowstone National Park area's weather forecast the morning of June 12 seemed fairly tame: warmer temperatures and rain showers would accelerate mountain snow melt and could produce "minor flooding." A National Weather Service bulletin recommended moving livestock from low-lying areas but made no mention of danger to people.

Torrents of water poured off the mountains. Swollen rivers carrying boulders and trees smashed through Montana towns over the next several days. The flooding swept away houses, wiped out bridges and forced the evacuation of more than 10,000 tourists, park employees and residents near the park.

As a cleanup expected to last months grinds on, climate experts and meteorologists say the gap between the destruction and what was forecast underscores a troublesome aspect of climate change: Models used to predict storm impacts do not always keep up with increasingly devastating rainstorms, hurricanes, heat waves and other events.

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