CLICK TO SHARE
The prognostication problems with the 2020 election continue apace. To listen to the talking heads at CNN and NBC News, the only question left in terms of the presidential race is what color gown Jill Biden will wear to the inauguration. So why do we keep seeing news items like this one from Investors Business Daily? The latest IBC-TIPP tracking poll landed yesterday and they’re showing a continuation of the reversal of the President’s recent slippage nationally. Biden is still ahead, but his lead sits at a little more than four points. Contrary to most of the headlines we’ve been seeing, Donald Trump is actually closer to Joe Biden in this survey now than he was to Hillary Clinton one week before the 2016 election.
The latest Biden Vs. Trump poll from IBD/TIPP suggests the race has become competitive with just one week to go. President Donald Trump’s support has surpassed his 2016 share of the vote in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update, while Vice President Joe Biden appears to have lost ground among some key groups.
The IBD/TIPP survey was pretty accurate four years ago so take this news as you choose. But as with most races, we’re looking more at the trends and directions than the hard numbers. Biden is up 50.7 to 46.3 nationally. That probably sounds like good news for Biden fans, but if we scroll back only two days in the same tracking poll, Biden was up by a full seven points, 44.7 to 51.7. Yes, there’s always a bit of jitter in daily tracking polls, but something does appear to be lifting Trump’s fortunes over the past week.
This doesn’t mean that Trump is in any danger of winning the popular vote, but as we saw four years ago, he doesn’t really need to. And then there’s this alarming (to Democrats) headline from Newsweek. If the popular vote is “close” (definitions of that word in this context vary), Biden’s path to victory grows increasingly tenuous.
If the popular vote between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is nearly a tie, Trump has an 88 percent chance of re-election, researchers of the Electoral College predict in a recent study.
If you don't see any comments yet, congrats! You get first comment. Be nice and have fun.
CLICK TO SHARE
COMMENTS VIA TWITTER
@RealAPolitics Don’t... your polls are biased. Again, why did you deviate so much from the poll that predicted Trum… https://t.co/n3LvMjOjSl
@GabeGuidarini IBD/TIPP poll that predicted Trump’s 2016 surprise had Biden at 50.2% and Trump at 46.2 the day befo… https://t.co/PAURL8wTrK
@RealAPolitics The poll that predicted Trump’s surprise 2016 win? Seems legit. https://t.co/xYWEocmlWG
@RealAPolitics You intentionally misled your followers w/your fake made up 2020 presidential poll. Why’d you deviat… https://t.co/a2Y5lNRAY4