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The homicide rate in major U.S. cities jumped by an average of 34% in September and October compared to the same period in 2019, new data shows.
While significantly higher than 2019 homicide rates, the increase in the fall is less than the nearly 42% jump in homicides cities recorded during the summer between June and August compared to the same months in 2019, according to regularly updated data from the nonpartisan National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice.
The findings represent the most "sizeable increase in homicide" University of Missouri-St. Louis Professor Emeritus Richard Rosenfeld said he's seen in at least five years since the last wave of protests related to police violence took place throughout the U.S., but COVID-19 has most likely made violence worse.
"We've seen some reduction between the spike in homicide and gun assaults that occured in the middle of the summer and what we've seen in the fall," Rosenfeld, a former president of the American Society of Criminology who led the study, said. "I think we'll see less violence than we're currently seeing in the coming months, but I don't know if that trend is a temporary fluctuation."
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