Epidemiologist Who Estimated 2.2 Million Dead In U.S. Dramatically Downgrades Projection
Added 03-28-20 03:41:06pm EST - “Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson painted the grimmest of pictures: 2.2 million dead people in the U.S., 500,000 in the U.K. His Imperial College London model was heavily cited, including by The New York Times, and has helped guide government…” - Thegatewaypundit.com
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Posted By TheNewsCommenter: From Thegatewaypundit.com: “Epidemiologist Who Estimated 2.2 Million Dead In U.S., 500,000 In U.K. Dramatically Downgrades Projection”. Below is an excerpt from the article.
But Ferguson also said that things could change if governments took strong action to slow the virus and “flatten the curve” — the upward swing of the number of infected.
Earlier this week, Ferguson — who himself has contracted the virus — testified before the Houses of Parliament and said the death toll in the U.K. could be less than 20,000.
“He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him ‘reasonably confident’ the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower,” New Scientist reported.
The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units.
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