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Say what? Just two months after the killing of George Floyd set cities aflame across the country, Donald Trump has pulled into a virtual tie with Joe Biden in Minnesota — or so one pollster reports. According to a new Emerson poll, Biden only leads 50/47, while only a tiny percentage of voters claim to remain undecided:
A new Emerson College Poll finds Minnesota is competitive again in 2020, with 50% of voters planning on supporting former VP Joe Biden and 47% intending to vote for President Trump. While the race is close, only 3% of voters remain undecided. Of voters who plan to vote by mail, 91% plan to vote for Biden, and of those who plan to vote in person, 68% plan to vote for Trump.
President Trump’s approval rating amongst Minnesota voters is slightly underwater, with 46% approval, and 51% disapprove of his job performance, with 3% remaining neutral. Among independent voters, Trump’s approval is at 45% approval, and 47% disapproval.
I’d tend to be a little skeptical about these results, strictly from an observational point of view. However, this doesn’t appear to be much of an outlier. RCP doesn’t have much on Minnesota’s presidential polling, but Emerson’s not far off from a Trafalgar poll taken a couple of weeks earlier. The GOP-linked polling firm had a larger sample (1129 likely voters, compared to Emerson’s 733 registered voters), but found Biden only leading by five points, 49/44. Fox had Biden up thirteen earlier in June, 51/38, which now looks like more of an outlier.
Emerson also gives us our first look at the US Senate race in Minnesota. Former Rep. Jason Lewis has challenged interim appointment Tina Smith, and it looks like he’s in range of an upset as well:
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