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China's growth could slip below 6%, analysts warn, as trade war takes toll


Added 09-19-19 05:03:01am EST - “China's economic growth risks slipping below the lower-end of Beijing 2019 ...” - Reuters.com

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Posted By TheNewsCommenter: From Reuters.com: “China's growth could slip below 6%, analysts warn, as trade war...”. Below is an excerpt from the article.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth risks slipping below the lower-end of Beijing 2019 target of 6% in the third quarter or over the next year, analysts warn, but government economists are slightly more optimistic as they expect stimulus to help stave off a sharper slowdown.

Economists believe China’s economic growth likely cooled further this quarter from a near 30-year low of 6.2% in April-June, but they differ on whether the slowing trend could persist despite a raft of government policy measures.

Economic activity worsened in August, with growth in industrial production at its weakest in 17-1/2 years, as the U.S.-China trade war dented business confidence, investment and domestic consumption.

“But we expect September will see a jump in fixed-asset investment because many gift projects for 70th anniversary will be confirmed to be in the statistics at the quarter end. So we maintain our forecast of Q3 GDP 6.1%,” he told Reuters.

UBS expects China’s economic growth to slow to 5.5% in 2020 from expected pace of 6.0% in 2019. Growth will slow further in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 due to the impact from higher U.S. tariffs, UBS’s China economist Tao Wang said.

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