CLICK TO SHARE
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth risks slipping below the lower-end of Beijing 2019 target of 6% in the third quarter or over the next year, analysts warn, but government economists are slightly more optimistic as they expect stimulus to help stave off a sharper slowdown.
Economists believe China’s economic growth likely cooled further this quarter from a near 30-year low of 6.2% in April-June, but they differ on whether the slowing trend could persist despite a raft of government policy measures.
Economic activity worsened in August, with growth in industrial production at its weakest in 17-1/2 years, as the U.S.-China trade war dented business confidence, investment and domestic consumption.
“But we expect September will see a jump in fixed-asset investment because many gift projects for 70th anniversary will be confirmed to be in the statistics at the quarter end. So we maintain our forecast of Q3 GDP 6.1%,” he told Reuters.
UBS expects China’s economic growth to slow to 5.5% in 2020 from expected pace of 6.0% in 2019. Growth will slow further in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 due to the impact from higher U.S. tariffs, UBS’s China economist Tao Wang said.
Post a comment.
Anonymous comments are welcome, just check the "Comment Anonymously" box before submitting your comment. Note: Comments are free and open until someone ruins it. Don't dox, promote violence, etc. Be nice and have fun.
CLICK TO SHARE